Strategy In Action
EMINI TRADING – Some tips on building winning trading strategies and models, p.II
This article is the second in a series of three articles providing some tips on building successful trading models and systems. This article will discuss: simplicity vs. complexity, the importance of backtesting, and putting your strategy into action.
The general overview you should take towards building your trading models is to keep things simple. The less variables, indicators, or conditions you impose, the more flexible your trading models will be. Many traders make the mistake of adding more and more variables to their trading models, believing that it makes their models better. But the irony is that strategies that have many variables, and are very complex, tend to give poor trading signals, especially as the underlying market conditions change. We know the market is like the ocean, constantly moving and changing. If your models are not flexible, they will break when the market changes. Keeping things simple gives trading models more flexibility, it makes them more robust, and better able to handle the ever-changing market.
The next step is to backtest your trading strategies and models. There are many ways to backtest, but here are some things to keep in mind. First, do some small, random, sample backtesting, Monte Carlo style, and look at your results. If they look positive, then expand the backtesting as much as possible. It is very important to test your trading models across a variety of time periods, market conditions, and market directions. You need to make sure that your trading strategy is robust; it must be able to handle up, down, and sideways markets, and low, middle, and high volatility situations.
Sample size will also matter when you backtest your strategy. In general, the larger your sample size, the more confidence you can have in the results. Never trade a strategy that is based on small sample sizes. One rule of thumb that can be used, statistically, is that the sample size should contain at least 30 observations in order to have some confidence in the results of the study. My general feeling is that 30 observations is still small. Another concept I have come across is that it may be useful to have 30 observations for each variable in your trading model. This can still be misleading; ultimately you must use your own judgement about sample sizes and testing in order to have confidence trading your models. For example, even though you have a large sample size, if it is only from one time period, or from one year, then you probably should not have too much confidence in those results. It is not only the size of the sample that matters, but the variety of periods it is drawn from. Keep these ideas in mind when backtesting your strategies.
Once you feel comfortable with your backtesting you can begin to paper trade. My feeling towards paper trading is that it is ok to do, but only for a little while. Do not spend too much time paper trading. Paper trading results can be misleading because you may be misinterpreting entry and exit prices due to slippage, etc. It is much better to trade with real dollars. My suggestion with real dollar trading is to initially trade small position sizes. You do not need to begin trading a new strategy with maximum dollars and maximum position size. The reason you want to trade real dollars is because when there is money on the line you will focus better and learn quicker. In addition, having real money in a trade teaches you about your own personality and what you are like when you trade. In general, the information you will pick up trading with money is better than the information you will gather from paper trading.
In closing, by applying some of the ideas presented in this article you will significantly increase your chances of building successful and winning trading models and systems. Keep an eye out for the last article in this series.
About the Author
Beginning in 2002 I created three proven and historically backtested intraday trading models, the (XYZ), to trade the SP500 Emini futures contract. We offer subscriptions and FREE TRIALS to these models through our website;
or follow our blog and watch this short video:
http://xyztrader.blogspot.com/2010/03/video-introduction-of-trading-xyz.html
USE OUR AUTOMATED AND MECHANICAL TRADING SYSTEM TO GAIN A TRADING EDGE. USE OUR TRADING SIGNALS AND TRADING STRATEGIES TO MAKE MONEY. USE OUR RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES AND MONEY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM IN MANAGING RISK. WE TRADE THE S&P 500 EMINI STOCK INDEX AND FUTURES MARKET.
USE OUR DAY TRADING SECRETS AND TECHNIQUES TO MAKE MONEY ON THE CME GLOBEX S&P 500 EMINI INDEX FUTURES MARKET. USE OUR PLATFORM AND TOP SOFTWARE TO RECEIVE AUTOMATED TRADING SIGNALS ON FINANCIAL FUTURES. THIS IS ONE OF THE BEST AND EASY WAYS TO TRADE.
London Met Presentation on MN3027N Strategy in Action for IKEA
|
|
NAMCO Time Crisis 3 with Guncon 2 Light Gun $95.00 Time Crisis 3 brings the massive arcade hit to life, with all-new features and gaming modes! GUNCON 2 Light Gun included for superior shooting action… |
|
|
Dune 2000 Dune 2000 is a real-time strategy game that requires gallant leadership, cunning tactics, and formidable military prowess to win the Emperor’s challenge by being the first to harvest the most spice and take control of Dune. Three houses have arrived to claim the prize: the honorable House Atreides, the insidious House Ordos, and the vicious House Harkonnen. Whichever house you choose to lead, reme… |
|
|
Tournament Poker: No Limit Texas Hold’em $1.00 Tournament Poker: No Limit Texas Hold’Em lets you practice your tournament skills and experience what the pros do. Whether you play at a friendly local poker night, a card room in Vegas or the World Series of Poker, this is the game you need!… |
|
|
NLP in Action: Success Strategies for Rapid Change … |
|
|
5 Easy Pieces -Part 2: The Strategy In Action $40.00 VHS showing fashion consultant, Judith Rasband, with tips about her “cluster magic” concepts” for your wardrobe…. |
|
|
Ambush!: Navy SEALs In Deadly Action [VHS] The most deadly terror tactic of U.S. Navy SEALs in Vietnam was the ambush. This instructional video on the art of the ambush features all-new, never-before-seen footage from the personal archives of SEAL vets. Find out what it was like to conduct “wham and scram” ops, unconventional methods used only by SEALs, the difference between planned vs. hasty ambushes and much more…. |
|
|
Ike – Countdown to D-Day $6.24 Tom Selleck is superb as Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower, the man charged with overseeing the largest invasion force in military history, in this acclaimed historical drama that chronicles the final weeks before the June 6,1944 Allied landing on the beaches of Normandy, France. Timothy Bottoms, Gerald McRaney, Ian Mune, and James Remar also star. 89 min. Widescreen (Enhanced); Soundtrack: English Dolby … |
|
|
Flight of the Intruder $9.98 Time has been kind to Flight of the Intruder, a rousing aviation-action adventure that looks better now than it did to critics who panned it in 1991. Perhaps they were expecting a Tom Clancy-ish blockbuster (producer Mace Neufeld oversaw the Jack Ryan franchise), but director John (Conan the Barbarian) Milius had something potentially more substantial in mind. The first 75 minutes are pure Milius:… |
|
|
Godzilla Vs. Megaguirus: The G Annihilation Strategy $8.30 This second film in the unofficial “Godzilla Millennium” series (which followed its return to features in Godzilla 2000) occasionally suffers from dodgy special effects, but the giant lizard puts on enough of a show to please his longtime fans. The premise involves a special anti-Godzilla team’s efforts to rid Japan of the atomic menace by means of Dimension Tide, a satellite device that would cre… |
|
|
Gratiae Organics Ultrox Expression Marks Anti Wrinkle Serum, 1.02 Ounce $21.85 This thermal Self-heating mask instantly heats upon touching your skin. It helps to open up and intensively clean the pores to allow effective absorption of the serum and cream. The heat of this innovative Ultrox mask purifies and refines your skin by absorbing excess oils and removing pore-clogging dirt and dead skin cells. The mask contains a newly developed blend of restorative natural flora, o… |
|
|
Capcom: Game Boy Advance Combo Official Strategy Guide $39.84 New – Super Ghouls ‘N Ghosts is a remake of the acclaimed SNES game, now for the Game Boy Advance. Gamers play as Arthur, a fearless knight, as they go through seven difficult quests, collecting and uncovering armor, shields, treasure chests, and magic spells. In addition, the new “Arrange Mode” allows players to choose the next stage of the game at the end of each level. Mega Man Zero is a new action/adventure game for Game Boy Advance, starring Mega Man’s buddy, Zero. As Zero, players must hel |
|
|
Capcom: Game Boy Advance Combo Official Strategy Guide $55.51 New – Super Ghouls ‘N Ghosts is a remake of the acclaimed SNES game, now for the Game Boy Advance. Gamers play as Arthur, a fearless knight, as they go through seven difficult quests, collecting and uncovering armor, shields, treasure chests, and magic spells. In addition, the new “Arrange Mode” allows players to choose the next stage of the game at the end of each level. Mega Man Zero is a new action/adventure game for Game Boy Advance, starring Mega Man’s buddy, Zero. As Zero, players must hel |
|
|
Civilization Revolution Official Strategy Guide $40.14 New – Get out your console or handheld to enter the action-packed world of Civilization Revolution, and win. Be prepared for anything with this “Official Strategy Guide”. “Civilization Revolution Official Strategy Guide” features complete strategies so you’ll thrive in every game situation. It helps to explore in-depth coverage of all of the cities you’ll visit including improvements, culture, economy, intellect and population. It offers tips for cultural, military and economic victories plus pl |
|
|
Civilization Revolution Official Strategy Guide $60.37 New – Get out your console or handheld to enter the action-packed world of Civilization Revolution, and win. Be prepared for anything with this “Official Strategy Guide”. “Civilization Revolution Official Strategy Guide” features complete strategies so you’ll thrive in every game situation. It helps to explore in-depth coverage of all of the cities you’ll visit including improvements, culture, economy, intellect and population. It offers tips for cultural, military and economic victories plus pl |
|
|
Civilization Revolution Official Strategy Guide $9.87 Used – Get out your console or handheld to enter the action-packed world of Civilization Revolution, and win. Be prepared for anything with this “Official Strategy Guide”. “Civilization Revolution Official Strategy Guide” features complete strategies so you’ll thrive in every game situation. It helps to explore in-depth coverage of all of the cities you’ll visit including improvements, culture, economy, intellect and population. It offers tips for cultural, military and economic victories plus p |
|
|
Civilization Revolution Official Strategy Guide $12.04 Used – Get out your console or handheld to enter the action-packed world of Civilization Revolution, and win. Be prepared for anything with this “Official Strategy Guide”. “Civilization Revolution Official Strategy Guide” features complete strategies so you’ll thrive in every game situation. It helps to explore in-depth coverage of all of the cities you’ll visit including improvements, culture, economy, intellect and population. It offers tips for cultural, military and economic victories plus p |
|
|
101 Best Ways to Land a Job in Troubled Times $3.85 THE PROVEN FIVE-STEP STRATEGY FORFINDING THE JOB OF YOUR DREAMS!“If you are serious about landing a quality job quickly in today’sjob market, this book will practically guarantee your success.”–Bob Burg, bestselling author of Endless Referrals and The Go-Giver“Jay Block has taken his place as one of the career coaching industry’smost innovative thinkers and contributors.”—Frank X. Fox, Executive Director, Professional Association of Résumé Writers & Career Coaches“A must-read for all job seekers in today’s highly competitive job market.”—Sherry Zylka, Associate Dean of Continuing Educationand Workforce Development, Schoolcraft College (Michigan)“Jay has written a unique and highly effective book combiningmotivational techniques with job search innovation.”—Susan Leventhal, Manager, Professional Placement Network, Workforce One, FloridaAbout the Book:In 101 Best Ways to Land a Job in Troubled Times, Jay Block helps you approach yourjob transition strategically—not as a one-time search, but as a campaign of discovery throughwhich you’ll achieve your career objectives. Follow his easy five-step process to:• Manage fear and negative emotions that impede success• Carefully define clear job and career goals• Create effective and high-impact self- marketing tools that make job seekers STAND OUT professionally• Develop strategic, structured action plans that will become the job seeker’s GPS to their next job• Take action and “enjoy the process” of landing a job in troubled times quickly and effectivelyBlock’s proven method is the only way to truly seize control of your future, |
|
|
101 Best Ways to Land a Job in Troubled Times $14.95 THE PROVEN FIVE-STEP STRATEGY FORFINDING THE JOB OF YOUR DREAMS!“If you are serious about landing a quality job quickly in today’sjob market, this book will practically guarantee your success.”–Bob Burg, bestselling author of Endless Referrals and The Go-Giver“Jay Block has taken his place as one of the career coaching industry’smost innovative thinkers and contributors.”—Frank X. Fox, Executive Director, Professional Association of Résumé Writers & Career Coaches“A must-read for all job seekers in today’s highly competitive job market.”—Sherry Zylka, Associate Dean of Continuing Educationand Workforce Development, Schoolcraft College (Michigan)“Jay has written a unique and highly effective book combiningmotivational techniques with job search innovation.”—Susan Leventhal, Manager, Professional Placement Network, Workforce One, FloridaAbout the Book:In 101 Best Ways to Land a Job in Troubled Times, Jay Block helps you approach yourjob transition strategically—not as a one-time search, but as a campaign of discovery throughwhich you’ll achieve your career objectives. Follow his easy five-step process to:• Manage fear and negative emotions that impede success• Carefully define clear job and career goals• Create effective and high-impact self- marketing tools that make job seekers STAND OUT professionally• Develop strategic, structured action plans that will become the job seeker’s GPS to their next job• Take action and “enjoy the process” of landing a job in troubled times quickly and effectivelyBlock’s proven method is the only way to truly seize control of your future, |
|
|
1914 $29.1 The commander of the BEF’s view of the Great WarThis book, written by Sir John French, concerns his period of command during the first period of the Great War. Predictably, as in many commander’s memoirs it displays much partiality as to his own actions and those of others. This is particularly noteworthy since the consensus view of the history of the time does not judge-with much justification-French kindly. At the outbreak of the war French was the obvious choice for command and his views accorded with the government establishment if not with more forward thinking military men under his command. Fast moving German offensives revealed French’s military strategy with its faith in inflexible defensive strongpoints to be hopelessly out of date. Events overtook him and were it not for Smith-Dorrien’s aggressive action during the First Battle of Mons-for which seemingly French never forgave him-the BEF could easily have been overwhelmed. French became increasing out of touch and indecisive and was replaced in 1915 by Haig. This book is far from a balanced history, but is an important account of how a nineteenth century soldier saw his twentieth century war. It also contains much factual information on the dispositions of troops and actions in what was a fluid stage of the conflict. |
|
|
1914 $16.09 The commander of the BEF’s view of the Great WarThis book, written by Sir John French, concerns his period of command during the first period of the Great War. Predictably, as in many commander’s memoirs it displays much partiality as to his own actions and those of others. This is particularly noteworthy since the consensus view of the history of the time does not judge-with much justification-French kindly. At the outbreak of the war French was the obvious choice for command and his views accorded with the government establishment if not with more forward thinking military men under his command. Fast moving German offensives revealed French’s military strategy with its faith in inflexible defensive strongpoints to be hopelessly out of date. Events overtook him and were it not for Smith-Dorrien’s aggressive action during the First Battle of Mons-for which seemingly French never forgave him-the BEF could easily have been overwhelmed. French became increasing out of touch and indecisive and was replaced in 1915 by Haig. This book is far from a balanced history, but is an important account of how a nineteenth century soldier saw his twentieth century war. It also contains much factual information on the dispositions of troops and actions in what was a fluid stage of the conflict. |
|
|
1944 In The Philippines $14.14 Purchase includes free access to book updates online and a free trial membership in the publisher’s book club where you can select from more than a million books without charge. Excerpt: The Battle off Samar was the centre most action of the Battle of Leyte Gulf, one of the largest naval battles in history, which took place in the Philippine Sea off Samar Island, in the Philippines on October 25, 1944. As the only major action in the larger battle where the Americans were largely unprepared against the opposing forces, it has been cited by historians as one of the greatest military mismatches in naval history. Adm. William Halsey, Jr. was lured into taking his powerful 3rd Fleet after a decoy fleet. Thus only three escort carrier groups of the 7th Fleet remained in the area. A powerful Japanese surface force of battleships and cruisers that were thought to have been defeated and in retreat instead turned around unobserved and stumbled upon the northernmost of the three groups, Task Unit 77.4.3 (“Taffy 3″). Taffy 3′s destroyers and destroyer escorts desperately attacked with 5 in (127 mm) guns and torpedoes, while carrier aircraft dropped bombs and depth charges. While US vessels leading the counter-attack suffered heavy personnel losses, they sank or disabled three Japanese cruisers and caused enough confusion to convince the Japanese commander, Vice Adm. Takeo Kurita, to regroup and ultimately withdraw, rather than advancing to sink troop and supply ships at Leyte Gulf. The overall Japanese strategy at Leyte Gulf, a plan known as Sh-Go 1, called for Vice-Admiral Jisabur Ozawa’s fleet, known as Northern Force, to lure the American 3rd Fleet away from the Allied landings on Leyte, using an apparently vulnerable force of carriers. The landing forces, stripped of air cover, would then be attacked from the west and south by Vice Admiral Takeo Kurita’s Center Force, which would sortie from Brunei, and Vice Admiral Shoji Nishimura’… More: |
|
|
25 to Life $0.01 BradyGames 25 to Life Official Strategy Guide includes: Features a comprehensive walkthrough for players as cops or gangsters. Detailed listing of lethal and non-lethal weapons arsenal. Strategies for online and multiplayer situations. Game secrets revealed! Platform: PS2, Xbox Genre: Action/AdventureThis product is available for sale in North America only. |
|
|
25 to Life Official Strategy Guide $0.99 BradyGames’ 25 to Life Official Strategy Guide includes: Features a comprehensive walkthrough for players as cops or gangsters. Detailed listing of lethal and non-lethal weapons arsenal. Strategies for online and multiplayer situations. Game secrets revealed!Platform: PS2, XboxGenre: Action/AdventureThis product is available for sale in North America only. |
|
|
25 to Life Official Strategy Guide $5.3 New – BradyGames’ “25 to Life Official Strategy Guide” includes: Features a comprehensive walkthrough for players as cops or gangsters. Detailed listing of lethal and non-lethal weapons arsenal. Strategies for online and multiplayer situations. Game secrets revealed! Platform: PS2, Xbox Genre: Action/AdventureThis product is available for sale in North America only. |
|
|
25 to Life Official Strategy Guide $1.5 New – BradyGames’ “25 to Life Official Strategy Guide” includes: Features a comprehensive walkthrough for players as cops or gangsters. Detailed listing of lethal and non-lethal weapons arsenal. Strategies for online and multiplayer situations. Game secrets revealed! Platform: PS2, Xbox Genre: Action/AdventureThis product is available for sale in North America only. |
|
|
3 Elements For Effective Recruiting-Vol. 8b $9.65 If a key to an organization’s success is its talent, does it make sense to position the activity for replacing talent as a simple action of interviewing new candidates? How can a company find the right talent without knowing clearly what it needs; without having a clearly defined job description that spells out the specific core competences for the function; without a strategic recruiting process for hiring the right person the first time? The reality is too many organizations fail to make recruiting a priority and waste resources on ineffective hires.There’s a tendency for some companies to assume that the job descriptions stored in their HR databases and trundled out whenever someone leaves or when senior management decides to expand a business are gospel, despite the lack of any current organizational or job analysis. Is it conceivable, then, that the recruitment process in many organizations is invalid or unreliable for both measuring employee effectiveness and finding the right talent the first time? 3 Elements for Effective Recruiting is Volume 8b of the Howatt HR Consulting Talent Management Series that has been developed to promote strategic talent management considerations. One core element in hiring the right talent the first time is a recruiting strategy that’s aligned to the organization’s needs. It should take into consideration factors such as on-boarding. On-boarding is a strategic program to assist new hires to learn, fit into the organizational culture, and develop relationships with employees. These are important factors for influencing employee satisfaction and driving retention and productivity. The three elements in this book provide leaders with coreconsiderations for effective recruiting, strategic planning, and process and implementation.Dr. William A. Howatt, is CEO of Howatt HR Consulting Inc., a strategic human resources management company that focuses on assisting companies to gain a significant competitive edge by minimizing |
|
|
3-D Negotiation: Powerful Tools to Change the Game in Your Most Important Deals $8.72 Most current practice, thought, and discussion on negotiation-even the tremendously successful Getting to Yes-use an exclusively “at-the-table” perspective, focused on tactics, persuasion, psychology, empathy, and other elements of the interactive process of negotiation. Of course, these “1-D” elements are important, even crucial in many instances, but they are not sufficient as a long-term, consistent approach in high-stakes negotiations. The authors add depth and complexity to our understanding and practical approach to negotiations by articulating a “3-D” perspective, focused not only on the surface process, but also on the hidden, potential value to be unlocked with skillful “deal-design,” as well as the architecture of the game itself. 1-D: Tactics, at the Table. This is the people side of negotiation, the direct interpersonal dealing: setting the right atmosphere, choosing the most effective style, building trust, listening and shaping communication dynamics, framing arguments, persuading, deciphering body language, accurately reading personalities, and bridging cultural differences. This dimension is vital, but tactics at the table are only one part of the story. The real action is often elsewhere, with tactics merely the visible surface of a deeper approach. Great negotiators do not limit themselves to a 1-D strategy in a 3-D world. 2-D: “Deal design, ” on the Drawing Board. 2-D negotiators relentlessly look past interpersonal process and tactics to the underlying substance of the problem, diagnosing just where potential value exists and how to craft agreements that could unlock this value. Along with persuasive tactics, a sophisticated 2-D negotiatorinstinctively employs powerful principles of deal design-which the authors will illustrate-that help figure out and structure sustainable, value-creating agreements. 3-D: “Gamecrafting,” away from the Table. Who sets up the negotiating “table” in the first place or specifies the “game” |
|
|
301 Ways to Use Social Media To Boost Your Marketing $19.95 Master social-media marketing quicker than the competition can say tweet ! The time to build social media into your marketing strategy was yesterday. But fear not–this book can get you going by tomorrow. Designed to help you take action right away, 301 Ways to Use Social Media to Boost Your Marketing presents everything you need to know in short, snapshot lessons. Every tip is presented in a standalone format to help you focus on what you need to do–and only what you need to do–and each one can be implemented on its own or in combination with other techniques to increase web traffic or brand awareness. Topics include: Blogging Micromedia Social networking sites Bookmarking Events Multimedia Reviews and Opinion sites 301 Ways to Use Social Media to Boost Your Marketing brings you up to date on today”s most groundbreaking social media tactics using Twitter, Facebook, Digg, and other hot social media sites! |
|
|
4 in 1 Action Pack Playstation 3 [PS3] $18.75 The 4 in 1 Action Pack is a collection of four downloadable PS3 games on a single disc. Mushroom Wars is a pared-down real-time strategy game with a focus on small-map skirmishes. Smash Cars is a 3… |
|
|
50 Horse Games $1.26 Ride, jump, race and more in this big horse game collection Product Information 50 Horse Games lets you ride into the biggest game compilation ever created for horse lovers. Choose from an extraordinary variety of horse games, activities, puzzles, trivia questions, and more. You’ll enjoy horsing around with arcade, strategy, and action games featuring riding and jumping fun. Product Features Riding, jumping, and racing Riddles and activities Challenging trivia questions Adorable horse picture puzzles And much more! Windows System Requirements Windows 98SE, Me, 2000, XP, Vista Athlon-/Pentium III or better processor 256 MB of RAM 16 MB graphics card 16-bit sound card CD-ROM/DVD-ROM drive Mouse |